Jul 172015
 

If anyone tells you that crime and incarceration have some sort of cause and effect relationship, just show them this.

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cause and effect

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 Posted by at 10:42 am

  4 Responses to “No causal connection”

  1. I’d really like to agree with you, because I’m opposed in principle to mass incarceration. However, the two curves show total crime dropping as incarceration increases. The strong inverse correlation suggests that there might be a causal connection. What are you seeing differently?

    • Are we looking at the same picture? The graph shows crime going up at about 500,000 crimes per year from 84 to 91, and incarceration going up steadily at the same time. Then, after 91, crime suddenly starts going down, almost exactly at the same rate it had been going up, but incarceration keeps going up at the same rate, as if it makes no difference whether crime is going up or down.

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